Bluechip Observation:Bumababa Pero Bumabalik Din Sa Average Price Niya (Kakaibang Diskarte Sa Pagtrade Ng Bluechips)
“Maam pansin ko sa mga bluechip stocks ay bumabagsak sila pero sooner or later bumabalik din sa average price.”
Oh really?
Well, thats a nice observation.
Kung naobserve mo yan ay naobserve na din yan ng iba. Kung naobserve ng iba ay malamang may tool sa charting para mahuli mo ang up and down movement na yan.
Yan ang pag-uusapan natin sa blog na ito.
The Idea
Ang idea ay ganito. Umaakyat ang price tapos bumabalik din sa average. Bumabagsak ang price tapos bumabalik din sa average.
Lets say 2 pesos ang average na price.
Umaakyat sa 3 pesos pero bumabalik din sa 2 pesos. Bumabagsak sa 1 peso pero bumabalik din sa 2 pesos.
If you can somehow find a way para makabili every time it goes down ay makakabenta ka with profits kapag bumalik ito sa average.
So, how do we do this?
We cannot just blindly buy and say na “ito ang low” at “ito ang average na babalikan.”
Panghuhula yung ganun.
So, what tool can we use para maisakatuparan ang idea natin.
Punta ka sa TRADINGVIEW at hanapin mo sa indicators ang LINEAR REGRESSION CHANNEL.
It looks like this sa chart:
Regression refers to a return to a former, usually lower or less perfect, state or a, reverting to an earlier behavioral level.
Bumababa tapos bumabalik sa average. Umaakyat tapos bumabalik sa average.
Ang middle line ng tool na ito ay ang base line or yung price na binabalik-balikan.
As you can see sa chart ni AC ay umakyat man siya or bumagsak ay bumabalik pa din siya sa gitna.
How To Trade This Idea?
Ang observation mo ay bumabagsak ang price tapos umaakyat din.
Ang suggestion ko sayo ay ganito.
You buy at or near the lower line then you exit the middle line.
Use a percentaged-based cutloss point.
Pwedeng 5% at pwede din na 7% or depende kung magkanong percentage loss ang tolerable sayo.
Unique na approach ito kasi mostly ay bumibili sila sa middle at nagbebenta near the upper line or they look for some downtrending stock at bibili sila once nabreak ang upper line but since ang observation mo nga ay bumabagsak at bumabalik sa average so we derived an approach na fit sa naobserve mo.
You can use this sa mga Bluechips. Same idea at approach lang.
I hope this helps.
Trade well po.
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