Sinisira Ba Ng Gambler’s Fallacy Ang Trades Mo?
The Gambler’s fallacy describes the tendency of humans to think that a random event is more or less likely to happen based on a previous outcome.
Yung feeling mo minsan kapag naglalaro kayo ng lucky nine na due ka nang manalo dahil 10 straight ka nang natalo.
Alam mo yun?
Sampung beses kang natalo kaya feeling mo “next game sure ako panalo na ako!”
Ang reasoning mo ay dahil “due or napapanahon” na ang panalo mo.
Yan ang Gambler’s Fallacy.
Sa trading, kadalasan mo naiisip yan kapag may series of losses ka.
Lets say naka 10 straight losses ka na.
Sa 11th trade mo ay itotodo mo ang pera mo. Mag-a-all-in ka kasi surebol na ang panalo.
“Sampung beses ba naman akong natalo…ito na yun sa next trade!”
Well, walang ganun.
Kahit 100 straight ka pang natalo ay pwede ka pa din matalo sa next trade.
Bawat trade mo ay pwedeng maging win or loss.
Walang connection ang future trades mo sa past trades na nagawa mo.
Yung mind mo lang kadalasan ang gumagawa ng imaginary connection.
To be an objective trader ay wala kang expectation dapat sa outcome ng bawat trade mo.
Hayaan mo si market ang magdecide sa outcome.
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