Ano Ba Ang Isang Analysis?
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Most traders do not understand that an analysis is an opinion.
When you analyze a stock using any tools ke Elliott Wave man yan or Darvas Box of Harmonics or Fibonacci or Moving averages and Indicators, you are simply making an opinion.
Walang analysis na nagpipredict ng future.
Si market lang ang may say sa mangyayare sa future.
Lets say nianalyze mo ang isang stock. Lets take SMPH for example. Ayun sa analysis mo ay nabreak ni SMPH ang MA20 with volume plus good news as catalyst. Ang conclusion mo ay aangat si SMPH further.
Aangat na ba si SMPH dahil yun ang analysis mo?
Nope. Analysis mo lang yun. Depende pa rin yan kay market. Depende sa mga buyers at sellers.
Lahat ng price action, indicators, news at fundamentals ay nagpapakita lang ng nangyayare now. Wala sa kanila ang may predictive power na pwede magsabi ng future.
You buy SMPH.
Umangat nga ang SMPH further.
Was it because of your analysis?
Nope. Your pride and ego will probably tell you na yung analysis mo ang dahilan sa pag akyat ng SMPH. The same pride and ego na magiging one day cause ng downfall mo.
If observant ka at self-aware ay ganito talaga ang nangyare.
May analysis ka. You bet on your analysis. Bumili ka ng SMPH.
Then…after mo magpress ng buy button…
You sit there and wait.
You sit there and let other traders buy and sell.
You sit there and wait sa gagawin ng market.
Wala ka nang iba pang ginawa after mo buy na nakainfluence sa next na mangyayare.
SMPH went up and its not by your doing. Dahil yun sa ibang buyers after mo bumili na bumili higher kesa sa pinagbilhan mo.
You pride and ego blinded you into thinking na you had anything to do with the move SMPH did.
So the next time na may nakita ka ulit na stock na above MA20 with good news at good volume ay bumili ka thinking na surebol aakyat yun kasi nga umakyat noon ang SMPH.
You bet a lot. Umutang ka pa.
Above MA20 ang RLC at may good news ito at catalyst.
You borrowed money sa mga family and friends para ibili ng RLC kasi nga surebol.
You bought RLC and you wait.
Bumagsak ang RLC instead umakyat gaya ng SMPH.
Inisip mo na “aangat din to baka temporary lang to na pagbagsak kasi si SMPH nga umangat.”
Mas maraming sellers ang willing magbenta sa baba.
Bumagsak lalo si RLC.
Di ka makaexit dahil sa una anlaki ng tinaya mo at pangalawa ay sa tingin mo tama ka kaya “temporary” na pagbagsak lang yan para sayo.
May mga “nagpapasakay lang yan” ka pa na term.
Instead umakyat ay lalo pang bumagsak.
You now have a stock na may over 50 percent loss.
Andun ka confused bakit ganun nangyare eh ok naman ang SMPH trade mo noon using the same exact method.
Andun ka holding a huge loss and not understanding what is going on.
If you somehow understood na any analysis can go wrong and lahat ng analysis using any method is an opinion ay baka wala kang malaking losses ngayon.
If you somehow understood na si market ang nasusunod and siya ang nagdedecide sa outcome ng isang trade ay baka wala kang malaking loss na almost too dificult na irecover.
Wala ng mas malaki pa na sign na mali ka kesa dun sa malaking loss sa port mo.
Wala ng mas malaking proof pa kesa doon.
Market is supreme. Analyses are opinions.
Ito yung mga ideas na di mo halos naririnig at nakikita sa trading community kasi nga mas madami ang nagfafail sa trading which means most ideas floating around are from failed traders.
I know a lot of traders na magagaling mag analyze. Plot ng Elliott Wave here and there. Draw ng chart here and there. All they do is analyze.
They won’t show you their trades kasi like you ay may malalaking loss din yan sila.
Si market ang nasusunod and not anybody’s anlaysis.
Yung analysis mo ay either aayun sa gusto ni market or hindi.
Si market ang nasusunod.
Isang idea lang ito and marami pang ideas na di mo alam just because nasa crowd ka lagi tumatambay.
We have this amazing event on July 16-17 na I do believe need mo maexperience.
Try mo lang kasi andaming ideas na mababago sayo doon.
We call this upcoming event I DARE YOU TO TRADE 4.
Hindi siya as expensive as other courses na inooffer sa trading community but its better by a mile sa mga naexperience mo na kasi sa I DARE YOU TO TRADE 4 ay may mga bagay ka na malelearn na halos di pa alam ng karamihan.
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Give it a try. Isipin mo na lang nagstarbucks ka.
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2 Comments
Gandakoh
Yes copies of session will be sent to the participants
Andres Benwick
May nakita ako previously na parang free ang 1st day sa mga ngVantablack course before. Want to know kung this is still applicable before I enroll.
Also, erratic din kasi internet signal sa amin kaya reassuring to know that copies of session will be sent to participants.